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Prediction for CME (2025-05-06T16:55:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-06T16:55Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38722/-1
CME Note: Relatively fast, narrow eruption seen to the south-southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and farther to the east-southeast or directly southeast in STEREO A COR2; the CME is associated with a filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk near S20W01 seen as a lifting off of dark plasma in GOES SUVI 304 and SDO AIA 304 around 2025-05-06T16:30Z with bright post-eruptive arcades, especially in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-09T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38725/1
Model Inputs:
2025-05-06T16:55:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-9.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=1496.0, HalfAngle=11.0, Time21.5=2025-05-06T18:56Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-05-09T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250506_185600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 61.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-06T18:43Z

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